M&A Report & HVAC Industry Trends - Summer 2023

M&A Report: HVAC Industry Trends Summer 2023

The HARDI trade association recently released its mid-year TRENDS outlook discussing industry trends and analysis through June 2023.  
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The TRENDS series is based on data HARDI distributor members provide voluntarily, leading to a more accurate account of the current industry landscape than other traditional market surveys.
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Key takeaways from the HARDI report as of the midway point of 2023 include:

Annual Sales Growth

Annual sales growth for the 12 months through June 2023 was 6.3%. There are signs of slowness in the US industry, with June down 6.4% year over year, which follow mixed results in April and May.

Cooling Degree Days

Cooling degree days were significantly lower: down 22% in April, 41% in May, and 23% in June. This seasonal coolness is lowering immediate demands for equipment and products.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain disruptions continue to drive OEM price increases, though the magnitude and frequency of increases has significantly slowed.  Distributors report that annual price increases passed through to customers were less than 5%, a dramatic reduction from the 26% surge in pricing observed in 2022.

Last year, heightened pricing played a pivotal role in propelling revenue growth, which offset flat to declining volumes across the industry. The present deceleration in pricing dynamics may pose a formidable challenge for OEMs and distributors as they navigate H2 2023.

Conversely, this evolving scenario could prove advantageous for contractors and service operations, who typically bear the weight of elevated equipment costs as they find it harder to fully pass through these expenses to their customers.

Wrapping Up

OEMs and distributors may see strained operating results through the remainder of 2023 after experiencing years of sizeable price increases that outstripped input costs and led to generally improved margins above historical levels.  This means that while M&A valuation multiples remain strong, particularly for the very best sellers, profitability may be tamed, dampening valuations due to lighter operating results.
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Service companies, for their part, remain well positioned in the current environment due to mission critical nature of HVAC service work and underlying demand being relatively non-discretionary.  Particularly for service companies geared toward repair and maintenance work, we expect to see profitability remain strong, with M&A appetite showing few signs of slowing.

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HVAC M&A Activity: Current News Report

Current HVAC M&A Market Update

In parallel with the broader M&A markets, the US HVAC transaction landscape has shown a marked decrease in deal activity over the past twelve months, with closed deals down 34% compared to the prior year.  While seemingly a dramatic decline, it is helpful to keep in mind that M&A activity in the HVAC sector this year is relatively in line with normal level of volume seen during the 2018-2020 time period, outside the torrid pace of 2021-2022.

HVAC Buyers Remain Active

Based on our extensive discussions with corporate strategic buyers and private equity investors, we maintain a positive outlook for M&A in the HVAC sector, across the different vertical markets (manufacturers, distributors and service operations). This optimism stems from the enduring appeal of HVAC as an attractive end market, driven by sustainable themes such as energy efficiency / sustainability, health and indoor air quality and advancements in technology which continue to drive enthusiasm and M&A activity.

• For strategic parties, who in general are experiencing slowness in organic sales this year but maintain strong balance sheets and excess cash reserves, M&A will continue to be an avenue for sustained revenue growth and realize synergistic profitability opportunities, especially at the larger end of the market.
• PE investors also continue to have a strong appetite for the HVAC across the verticals. With the number of investors in the space seemingly growing monthly, and with continued opportunities to build platforms and consolidate the space, equity investors will drive much of the middle market activity.

Implications for Business Owners

While the current M&A landscape is no doubt less frenetic than 2021-2022 as a result of higher interest rates and economic slowness, high-quality “A-rated” businesses with a track record of growth, differentiated products and services and high-quality management teams will continue to find a captive and enthusiastic buyer universe. Additionally, “B-level” companies can still be attractive in this market, but perhaps at a lower value at least until investors get past the recent volatility and find more confidence in the outlook for the financial markets.  With that said, family and founder owned businesses should consider now as the best time to prepare for a future liquidity event, especially when the financial markets fully recover (which can happen quickly).

Upcoming HVAC Industry Events

• NAFA (National Air Filtration Association) Annual Convention Sept. 13 – 15 | Nashville, TN
• 2023 Decarbonization Conference for the Built Environment October 25-27 | Washington D.C.
• RETA (Refrigerating Engineers & Technicians Association) Conference Nov. 14 – 17 | Jacksonville, Florida
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Click here to view complete PDF of our HVAC Sector Industry Trends and M&A Outlook - Summer 2023 PDF

Click here to view our AHR Expo 2023 Recap & Takeaways: HVAC Trends & Outlook

Contact Us

Whether you are actively considering an exit or just curious about options for the future, we would love to connect, learn more and truly understand your objectives. We are happy to share our insights and help explore strategies to maximize the value of your company and enhance the legacy of your business.

‍Ramsey Goodrich
203-349-8375 (Direct)
203-554-2435 (Mobile)
RGoodrich@CarterMorse.com

Christopher Reenock
203-349-8376 (Direct)
917-334-1739 (Mobile)
CReenock@CarterMorse.com

Geoff Bradley
203-312-4587 (Mobile)
gbradley@CarterMorse.com

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