Geopolitics is now the #1 concern keeping global M&A bankers up at night – more than inflation, market volatility and tariffs.
That was one of the clearest signals from the Alliance of International Corporate Advisors (AICA) annual conference in London, where Michael Carter represented CMG alongside 50 M&A bankers from 25 boutique firms across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas.
It was Michael’s 15th consecutive AICA conference. CMG was one of the founding members in 2009.
A few takeaways that matter for middle-market business owners weighing a transaction:
- Sentiment is quietly improving. Only 50% of member firms reported worse economic outlook over the past 12 months, down meaningfully from 68% the year prior. 61% now expect deal volume to hold steady or rise in the year ahead, a sharp reversal from 2025, when 63% expected volumes to fall.
- Deals are taking longer everywhere. 52% of firms report transactions now closing in 11–14 months. Diligence is deeper, regulatory review is slower, and buyers are more deliberate. Sellers should plan accordingly.
- Geopolitical risk tops the worry list. Cross-border transactions require advisors who can navigate jurisdictional complexity in real time.
- The AI debate is split. Roughly half the room views current valuations as a bubble; the other half expects continued growth at a more measured pace. There’s no consensus and anyone telling you otherwise is selling something.
- Some business models are being structurally repriced. Traditional ad agencies were called out specifically: valuations down 50–75%. If your sector is in AI’s crosshairs, think about how best to manage and optimal transaction timing.
Gatherings like AICA give CMG something that doesn’t show up in a pitch deck: live market intelligence from peers actively closing deals across every major region, and the trust-based relationships that make cross-border transactions actually work.
International reach is core to how CMG operates with partners on the ground in virtually every market our clients need to access.
Next stop: Dubai in 2027, the original 2026 host city, postponed due to regional conflict. Fittingly, our UAE colleague was among the most optimistic voices in the room about what’s ahead.
